The Box Office Topic

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Jabroniville
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The Box Office Topic

Post by Jabroniville » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:57 am

So one of my many nerdy hobbies is to watch the box office of stuff, though this comes and goes based off of whether or not I'm interested in a film.

I figure this topic would be good for general "So this is what's out" stuff, and speculation about other films.

So The Incredibles 2 dropped for a record-breaking weekend, SHATTERING the prior opening week for an animated feature. The huge period of time between films, and the humor shown in the trailers, clearly worked in its favor- people REALLY wanted to see this. I haven't as of yet, but will very soon. I mean... DAT ASS!!! DAT OUTFIT!!!

Ocean's 8 did... okay. It didn't get the controversy, nor as obnoxious a blowback from the creators, as did Female Ghostbusters ("The only reason you hated that piece of shit trailer is because you're all SEXIST!!! And RACIST!!!"), and probably made money. About a third or half as much as the other Ocean's movies.

Deadpool 2 did amazingly well, coming about $100 million short of the first one's global take so far. It's really the same kind of movie, so not as innovative and original as the first, so I kind of saw this coming. Not a bad movie, though.

Jurassic World drops THIS weekend, however, and will probably kick I2 square in DAT ASS when it comes out, but the two movies aren't really competitors, so will likely due well in spite of each other.

Solo, of course, is now considered an "infamous bomb", with a mere $341 million or something. That THIS could result in an inability to make a profit is astonishing, but expected in today's "Wild Success or HUGE BOMB" market. Fans on one end are making excuses, while fans on another side are chortling and calling this the "just desserts" for the controversy over The Last Jedi, and expecting Kathleen Kennedy (our newest scapegoat for "Everything about these movies we hate") to step down shortly.

The "Accepted Story" online seems to basically be "the fans have deserted the franchise", while the naysayers to that look more than a little desperate ("No-no! S-see, we have all these OTHER reasons..."), though their reasoning contains some merit (Star Wars Fatigue, weak trailers, changing directors partway through). The next Star Wars movie will be the REAL determinator.

greycrusader
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by greycrusader » Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:57 pm

Eh, the Ghostbusters remake (which I caught on cable) was mediocre, but not worse (and arguably better) than the sequel to the original. I think the biggest miss was NOT having it set in the same "universe", because that would have allowed for more comedic possibilities IMHO. The trailer WAS badly done and humor-free, and deserved to get ripped, regardless BUT....

The whole "you raped my childhood!!!" thing coming from grown men in their thirties and forties? Get a frigging life already! Grow Up! Its was as bad as comic book fans who act like retcons and reboots somehow caused all the past stories they liked/collected to burst into flames. Cripes.

Of course, the other thing to remember is, Ghostbusters really wasn't that big a thing when it came out-it didn't break any box office records, didn't make anyone's careers, wasn't considered groundbreaking in any way...yeah, funny movie which mostly stands up, probably the last time Dan Akroyd was really good in a comedic role, trademark Murray deadpan snarker before he started sleepwalking through films...but not any kind of generation defining film event.

The latest Ocean's entry/soft reboot isn't bad at all, though not as crisp as the original-I'd rate it well above the first sequel and on a par with the third (the second had such a fuzzy plot I really couldn't even tell you what happened without looking it up). Some neat cameos and left enough ambiguity as to Danny Ocean's final fate. Good chemistry with the cast (paring it down to 9 was a good thing).

Deadpool 2 was almost seen as an under-performer, which is pretty myopic-its a comedy sequel, not a super-big-budget blockbuster AND there was overlap with the intended audience for Infinity War. And as you said, it just can't be as surprising or innovative as the first one, though it definitely has its moments.

I saw Solo's lack of success coming; the Star Wars movie releases aren't "events" anymore, there have been too many released in succession, and Harrison Ford is WAY too associated with the role, period. Alike Bond or Batman, the character didn't predate the actor/star.

Modern day box office is a funny thing; for all we here about "record-breaking", when adjusted for inflation, even the huge numbers posted by Black Panther, Infinity War, The Incredibles 2, etc., they really lag well behind movies from the 1970s on back-because after that, there was the whole premium cable explosion, DVDS/Streaming services, along with prices for tickets outpacing inflation. The whole model is different now, which is why worldwide box office and pre-sales to the above mentioned services are WAY more important now.

All my best.
Last edited by greycrusader on Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Jabroniville
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Jabroniville » Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:59 am

Yeah, inflation is a funny thing. It bugs me when people tout Lion King and Frozen as the All-Time Animated Films, when looking at Snow White renders the comparisons moot, when you judge inflation.

Of course, older movies tended to accumulate their grosses via re-releasing to theatres every few years. Disney ESPECIALLY used to do this, until they finally bit the bullet (after a LOT of fighting) and used the "Disney Vault" system of releases.

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Batgirl III
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Batgirl III » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:20 am

Most serious sources will adjust for inflation when comparing box office performance, at least when comparing things that are decades older. Most people won’t be bothered to adjust for inflation between, say, The Last Jedi and The Force Awakens. Or even Revenge of the Sith. They definitely would if comparing them to Star Wars (1977).

The real tricky bit prestidigitation with box office numbers is “Opening Weekend” figures; Studios long ago started putting out movies for Midnight Releases at 00:00 Friday morning (really Thursday night for all practical purposes) to pad their “Opening Weekend.” This proved so popular that now many theater chains (and the studio distributors backing them) have their “Midnight Releases” set for 8 or 9 o’clock Thursday... Hell, some major markets for really big films now get 00:00 Thursday morning (really Wednesday night) releases! So the “Opening Weekend” figures for a big studio film could be 3-5 days of screenings versus 2-3 days.
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Jabroniville
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Jabroniville » Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:02 am

The thing is, the "All-Time" movie lists seem to ALL quote the recent releases as the all-time leaders, ignoring inflation entirely. You even need to find a different section of Box Office Mojo to find one that factors it in- the sidebar on every movie lists the film's placing in various headings, and none of them feature "Adjusted For Inflation", for the most part.

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Batgirl III
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Batgirl III » Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:02 pm

BARON wrote:I'm talking batgirl with batgirl. I love you internet.

Jabroniville
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Jabroniville » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:09 pm

Batgirl III wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:02 pm
They have a whole page devoted to it.
Yeah, but I think that's the only one. The side-panel of nearly every film features "who made the most money?", never taking into account inflation.

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Batgirl III
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Batgirl III » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:26 pm

I tend to ignore commentary and analysis, just looking at the raw data. Probably a side-effect of my political activitsm and day job.
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Shock
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Shock » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:27 pm

Jabroniville wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:09 pm
Batgirl III wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:02 pm
They have a whole page devoted to it.
Yeah, but I think that's the only one. The side-panel of nearly every film features "who made the most money?", never taking into account inflation.
Adjusting for inflation is too complicated for the average score-keeper who just wants to see the biggest number

BriarThrone
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by BriarThrone » Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:55 pm

Shock wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:27 pm
Jabroniville wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:09 pm
Batgirl III wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:02 pm
They have a whole page devoted to it.
Yeah, but I think that's the only one. The side-panel of nearly every film features "who made the most money?", never taking into account inflation.
Adjusting for inflation is too complicated for the average score-keeper who just wants to see the biggest number
It's also inconvenient for those boasting about their achievements in the current day.

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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by MacynSnow » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:35 pm

BriarThrone wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 8:55 pm
Shock wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:27 pm
Jabroniville wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:09 pm


Yeah, but I think that's the only one. The side-panel of nearly every film features "who made the most money?", never taking into account inflation.
Adjusting for inflation is too complicated for the average score-keeper who just wants to see the biggest number
It's also inconvenient for those boasting about their achievements in the current day.
<Currently sitting on a the Throne from Pirates Of The Caribbean surrounded by Money>
That's why i don't boast about what i make,as inflation would shrink it all down to less than a dibbloone(?)..... :D

Jabroniville
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Jabroniville » Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:59 am

Huh: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4417&p=.htm

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom has done WAY better than I thought it would- hitting $1.2 billion worldwide (those are Frozen numbers), and $363 million domestic. Considering everyone I know looked at that like "What is the point of this one?" and "this looks dumb", that's a bit of a shocker. But there's no real competition in terms of action movies this month, so they had the all-clear. And it's noticeably barely half of what the last JW movie made domestically.

Hotel Transylvania III was a huge smash. I've never seen those movies, but "Random Wacky Kids' Comedy CGI Movies" are famously profitable- the wackier the commercials look, the better they do (it's why the Madagascar movies made so much money).

Skyscraper, a "Dwayne Johnson Says Yes to EVERYTHING" movie, did pretty poorly. I don't even know what that is.

Incredibles 2 has slowed down, but is now the top domestic animated movie of all time, surpassing $500 million and being $130+ beyond what even Frozen has done. It's not done internationally, which means it could climb about $900 million- I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it broke the record, but Frozen was a goliath overseas. It's got Pixar behind it, the popularity of its predecessor, and "No wait- it's ACTUALLY great!" reviews helping it out.

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Batgirl III
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Batgirl III » Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:51 pm

I think the success of Jurassic World 2 internationally owes to the fact that it’s a special effects and CGI effects spectacle of the sort that only American studios are really good at making. The domestic audience has kind of grown bored with films that have nothing to offer apart from awesome effects wizardry... But there’s still ample hunger for it in China, India, and Eastern Europe.

Expect a lot more Jurassic World 2’s and Transformers’s in the future — CGI spectaculars that studios plan on doing middling numbers domestically and are banking on foreign markets — do be explicitly tailored and/or recut to appeal to the Chinese market. This is why Pacific Rim 2 downplayed the Japanese heroine of the first film and pushed a Chinese heroine. If a Pacfic Rim 3 is ever made, I fully expect a Chinese lead character, more scenes set in mainland China, and maybe no Japanese characters at all...
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Jabroniville
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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Jabroniville » Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:22 am

Wow- looking at the "All-Time" list, The Incredibles 2 is a MONSTER hit, doing $600 million+ domestically (that's about $200 million higher than FROZEN, even), and is within a hair's breadth of becoming the all-time Animated Movie leader- $90 million and it surpasses Anna & Elsa on the list. I'm not sure if it's been released everywhere yet, but it could still theoretically happen.

Jurassic World II was savaged by critics, but is sitting at $1.3 billion overall, and will probably not QUITE make it into the Top Ten All-Time list.

Huh, I didn't realize it... but Black Panther is actually slightly HIGHER than Avengers: Infinity War in terms of domestic box office! I knew it was a smash, but that's "repeat viewers" numbers considering how many people had to have seen Infinity War. Of course, here you can see the difference between domestic & worldwide grosses at work- they are neck-and-neck in the U.S... but WORLDWIDE? More than twice as many people saw Avengers as they did Black Panther (more people saw it in the U.S. than any other country combined). A cold, hard fact remains that international audiences don't watch "Black Movies" in the numbers of North Americans- something that Hollywood studios have been struggling with for a while (it hampers the use of black leads in a LOT of things, as the Chinese in particular are turned off by blacks in lead roles, apparently).

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Re: The Box Office Topic

Post by Chris Brady » Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:46 am

The problem with Frozen and Wonder Woman is that they weren't all that great as films, but what came before them was even worse.

Even a bad meal can taste like ambrosia if you're starving.

That's not to say they were bad, but they were no where near as good as people claimed they were.

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